Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.918003 1.070635 1.240386 1.443136 1.678709 1.943805 2.264827
2025-01-05 0.645286 0.840518 1.082158 1.403089 1.818180 2.337117 3.035677
2025-01-12 0.496015 0.698442 0.968580 1.355181 1.894319 2.619920 3.671850
2025-01-19 0.399113 0.598861 0.882287 1.313335 1.952414 2.865592 4.271567
2025-01-26 0.346312 0.548963 0.852140 1.338071 2.097563 3.240203 5.092980
2025-02-02 0.319918 0.532565 0.866059 1.426153 2.343642 3.788677 6.242114
2025-02-09 0.289158 0.503430 0.854291 1.469299 2.520914 4.247944 7.305961
2025-02-16 0.259410 0.470826 0.831153 1.488298 2.657542 4.653557 8.327975
2025-02-23 0.231431 0.436744 0.800031 1.487631 2.757416 5.004941 9.295417
2025-03-02 0.205889 0.403132 0.764721 1.473528 2.829245 5.312185 10.217259
2025-03-09 0.186001 0.377153 0.739538 1.473915 2.926025 5.672828 11.277972
2025-03-16 0.162637 0.341051 0.690375 1.421249 2.913300 5.824481 11.952664
2025-03-23 0.157625 0.341749 0.713972 1.517800 3.211507 6.619111 14.016520
2025-03-30 0.139069 0.311722 0.672069 1.475207 3.221636 6.844337 14.953461
2025-04-06 0.122350 0.283198 0.629395 1.424844 3.207884 7.016987 15.798728
2025-04-13 0.108361 0.258718 0.592081 1.380864 3.201484 7.202698 16.693313
2025-04-20 0.101298 0.249129 0.586322 1.406861 3.354456 7.752085 18.469710
2025-04-27 0.099430 0.251572 0.608143 1.499432 3.672244 8.706861 21.298952
2025-05-04 0.094502 0.245843 0.610084 1.544775 3.883743 9.442071 23.700638
2025-05-11 0.088480 0.236508 0.602134 1.564742 4.035781 10.054436 25.879807
2025-05-18 0.081908 0.224815 0.586829 1.564041 4.135668 10.551412 27.831314
2025-05-25 0.075263 0.212001 0.567061 1.549220 4.197423 10.960954 29.610569
2025-06-01 0.069976 0.202147 0.553713 1.549626 4.299132 11.483344 31.750585